Juve Stabia 3-1 Bari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Juve Stabia take on Bari.

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Analysis & Preview

Bari travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia in Serie B (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Juve Stabia's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Bari have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Bari and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Juve Stabia 3–1 Bari — a Juve Stabia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Juve Stabia trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bari trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 50% | Bari 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Bari 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.897 / defence 1.095 | Bari attack 0.790 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.101. Bari's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 24 games and Bari's last 62.

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.24 | Draw 2.83 | Bari 2.95. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Juve Stabia's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 60% (last 10 home games) | Bari 30% (last 10 away games).

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