Frosinone 3-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Frosinone's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Ternana and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 45% versus Ternana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 48% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.47 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.093 / defence 0.708 | Ternana attack 0.985 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.087. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Frosinone games / 56 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 5.56. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 30% | Ternana 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Frosinone 1.47 / Ternana 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.093 / def 0.708 | Ternana attack 0.985 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Ternana xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Ternana kick off?
Frosinone vs Ternana kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Ternana?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Frosinone vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Ternana part of?
Frosinone vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 53% chance of winning, Ternana a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Frosinone and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 2 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Ternana in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.09x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.98x) against Frosinone's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.36
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.23
0.76
Ternana xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.76 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 26W 16D 14L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana's form line: 22W 14D 20L from 56 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Frosinone against 1.43 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.07 PPG from 27 outings (16W 8D 3L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 9W 9D 9L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.39 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Ternana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Ternana have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Ternana away?
Frosinone's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.07 PPG; Ternana away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ternana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Ternana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Ternana 2-3 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Ternana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 41%, Ternana 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Frosinone) and 59% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Frosinone's games and 78% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Frosinone's matches and 59% of Ternana's.
Do Frosinone and Ternana tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ternana in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Ternana 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.47 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.09 / defence 0.71 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 53% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 48%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.68 PPG, Ternana 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.