Frosinone 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Frosinone welcome Modena to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Frosinone) versus 1.30 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Frosinone, 0 for Modena and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Modena trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 65% and Modena 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 62% | Modena 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.40 xG and Modena 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.991 / defence 1.219 | Modena attack 0.964 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Frosinone games / 40 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 38% | Draw 25% | Modena 37%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 38% | Draw 25% | Modena 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Frosinone 1.40 / Modena 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.991 / def 1.219 | Modena attack 0.964 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Modena xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Modena kick off?
Frosinone vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Modena?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Frosinone vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Modena part of?
Frosinone vs Modena is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 38% chance of winning, Modena a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Frosinone and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Modena in?
Frosinone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 0.99x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.92
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.78
1.39
Modena xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.39 for Modena, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 8W 12D 20L from 40 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 12L across 40 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 0.90 PPG, Modena on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 11D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Modena in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Modena in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Modena have gone 11W 17D 12L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Modena away?
Frosinone's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.30 PPG; Modena away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Modena 1-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Modena?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Frosinone at 70%, Modena at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Frosinone and 50% for Modena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Frosinone's games and 70% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Frosinone's matches and 50% of Modena's.
Do Frosinone and Modena tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Modena in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.40 xG and Modena 1.39 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Modena attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 38% | Draw 25% | Modena 37%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 62%, Modena 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.90 PPG, Modena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.