Frosinone 1-2 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Como travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Como — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Frosinone are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 1, Como 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Como trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 54% versus Como 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Frosinone 46% | Como 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.44 xG and Como 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.152 / defence 0.968 | Como attack 0.874 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.165. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Frosinone games / 22 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 45% | Draw 32% | Como 23%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Como 4.35. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 45% | Draw 32% | Como 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Frosinone 1.44 / Como 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.152 / def 0.968 | Como attack 0.874 / def 1.301 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Como xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Como kick off?
Frosinone vs Como kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Como?
Frosinone 1 - 2 Como.
Where is Frosinone vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Como part of?
Frosinone vs Como is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 45% chance of winning, Como a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Como?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Frosinone and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Como in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Como (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.15x the league average against Como's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.14
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
Como xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.99 for Como, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 10D 3L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (6W 10D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Como — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Frosinone's home form reads 4W 6D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 64%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Como in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 9W 10D 3L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Como have gone 6W 10D 6L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Como away?
Frosinone's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.64 PPG; Como away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Como in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Frosinone's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Como have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Como last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Como 0-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Como?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 54%, Como 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Frosinone) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Frosinone have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Frosinone's games and 73% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Frosinone's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Como tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Como in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Frosinone 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Frosinone 1-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.44 xG and Como 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Como outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Como attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 45% | Draw 32% | Como 23%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Como win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 46%, Como 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Como winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.