Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Cosenza.

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Fixture Analysis

Feralpisalo welcome Cosenza to Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Feralpisalo's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cosenza's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 1.30 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Feralpisalo, 0 for Cosenza and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Feralpisalo 1–1 Cosenza — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Cosenza 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.06 xG and Cosenza 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.956 / defence 1.240 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 31 games and Cosenza's last 69.

Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.11 | Draw 3.22 | Cosenza 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 30% (last 10 away games).

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