Feralpisalo 2-5 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Feralpisalo welcome Como to Stadio Leonardo Garilli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Feralpisalo have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feralpisalo at Stadio Leonardo Garilli this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Como — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Como have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Como — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Feralpisalo, 1 for Como and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Feralpisalo trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Como trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 54% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 58% | Como 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.30 xG and Como 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.050 / defence 1.299 | Como attack 1.038 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Data: 33 Feralpisalo games / 71 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 27% | Como 44%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Como 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Feralpisalo 60% | Como 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 27% | Como 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Feralpisalo 1.30 / Como 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 1.050 / def 1.299 | Como attack 1.038 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Como xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Como kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Como?
Feralpisalo 2 - 5 Como.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Como part of?
Feralpisalo vs Como is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 29% chance of winning, Como a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Como?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Feralpisalo and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Como in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Como (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Como's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.69
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.94
1.64
Como xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.64 for Como, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 7D 18L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Como's form line: 19W 7D 7L from 33 games, 1.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
On the road, Como have gone 8W 3D 5L from 16 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.48 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Como in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Como in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Como have gone 19W 7D 7L in their last 33 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.81 PPG; Como away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Como in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Como have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Como last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Feralpisalo 2-5 Como.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 56%, Como 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Feralpisalo) and 56% (Como). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Como in 38%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 44% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feralpisalo's matches and 56% of Como's.
Do Feralpisalo and Como tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Como in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Como run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Feralpisalo 2-5 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.30 xG and Como 1.64 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against Como attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 27% | Como 44%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 58%, Como 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.