Crotone 2-2 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Como at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crotone and Como meet at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 0.42 xG and Como 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Como attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.427 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Crotone games / 0 Como games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Crotone 15% | Draw 36% | Como 49%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 6.67 | Draw 2.78 | Como 2.04. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Crotone's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 15% | Draw 36% | Como 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 21% | xG Crotone 0.42 / Como 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Como attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.427 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Como (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.42
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Como xG
21%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Como kick off?
Crotone vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Como?
Crotone 2 - 2 Como.
Where is Crotone vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Como part of?
Crotone vs Como is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 15% chance of winning, Como a 49% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Como?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Crotone and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Como in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crotone's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.42. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.85x) against Crotone's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (22.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
15%
6.50
36%
2.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
24.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.42
Crotone xG
Total xG
1.40
0.98
Como xG
6.50
15%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.68
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
66%
1.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.0%.
How many goals are Crotone and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.42 expected goals for Crotone and 0.98 for Como, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Pre-Season
Como
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
2
Draws
0
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Como have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Como last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Como 1-1 Crotone.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Crotone and Como share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone and Como finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 0.42 xG and Como 0.98 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crotone beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Como outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Como attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 15% | Draw 36% | Como 49%, with Como to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 41% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.