Cremonese 0-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Virtus Entella at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.10 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 43% versus Virtus Entella 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Virtus Entella 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.32 xG and Virtus Entella 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.966 / defence 1.292 | Virtus Entella attack 1.098 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.156. Data: 4 Cremonese games / 42 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 24% | Virtus Entella 45%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Virtus Entella 2.22. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 50% | Virtus Entella 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 24% | Virtus Entella 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Cremonese 1.32 / Virtus Entella 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.966 / def 1.292 | Virtus Entella attack 1.098 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Virtus Entella xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella part of?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cremonese and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.97) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
31%
3.24
24%
4.10
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.96
1.64
Virtus Entella xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.64 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 11D 22L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (11W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.90 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 4W 7D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.52 points per game from 21 outings (2W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Virtus Entella away?
Cremonese's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.90 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Virtus Entella?
From 1 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 52%, Virtus Entella 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cremonese) and 33% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 38% of games; Virtus Entella in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cremonese's recent matches and 38% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cremonese's recent games and 33% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Virtus Entella finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.32 xG and Virtus Entella 1.64 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Virtus Entella landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Virtus Entella attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 24% | Virtus Entella 45%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Virtus Entella 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.90 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.