Cremonese 3-2 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Crotone at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Crotone in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 44% versus Crotone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 31% | Crotone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.52 xG and Crotone 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.061 / defence 1.010 | Crotone attack 0.617 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.180. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Cremonese games / 16 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 55% | Draw 27% | Crotone 18%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Crotone 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Crotone 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 55% | Draw 27% | Crotone 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Cremonese 1.52 / Crotone 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.061 / def 1.010 | Crotone attack 0.617 / def 1.463 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Crotone xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Crotone kick off?
Cremonese vs Crotone kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Crotone?
Cremonese 3 - 2 Crotone.
Where is Cremonese vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Crotone part of?
Cremonese vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 55% chance of winning, Crotone a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cremonese and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Crotone in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Crotone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.06x the league average against Crotone's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.69
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.25
0.73
Crotone xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.73 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Crotone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 5D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crotone sit at 0.50 PPG from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Crotone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cremonese's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Crotone have taken 0.14 points per game from 7 outings (0W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Crotone in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Crotone have gone 1W 5D 10L in their last 16 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Crotone away?
Cremonese's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.43 PPG; Crotone away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crotone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Crotone have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Crotone 3-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 57%, Crotone 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Cremonese and 43% for Crotone.
On the defensive side: Crotone in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cremonese's recent matches and 43% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Cremonese's recent games and 43% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Crotone tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Crotone in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Crotone 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Crotone 3-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.52 xG and Crotone 0.73 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crotone outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Crotone attack 0.62 / defence 1.46, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 55% | Draw 27% | Crotone 18%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 31%, Crotone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Crotone's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.