Cremonese 3-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cremonese at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cittadella make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Cittadella have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cremonese against 1.00 for Cittadella. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Cremonese, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Cittadella — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The historical record gives Cremonese a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Cittadella 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Cittadella 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.14 xG and Cittadella 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.935 / defence 0.972 | Cittadella attack 0.786 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Data: 37 Cremonese games / 75 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 26%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Cittadella 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Cremonese 1.14 / Cittadella 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.935 / def 0.972 | Cittadella attack 0.786 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cittadella xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cittadella kick off?
Cremonese vs Cittadella kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cittadella?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Cremonese vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cittadella part of?
Cremonese vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 39% chance of winning, Cittadella a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cremonese and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cittadella?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 3W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Cittadella in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Cittadella (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.79x) against Cremonese's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.90
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.04
0.89
Cittadella xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.89 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 23W 22D 30L from 75 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 20W 29D 26L across 75 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Cremonese against 1.19 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 12W 9D 16L from 37 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 8W 15D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.99 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 23W 22D 30L in their last 75 games (1.21 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 20W 29D 26L in their last 75 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cittadella away?
Cremonese's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.22 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cittadella in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 3-0 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cremonese
2
Draws
0
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 4, Cittadella have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Cittadella?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 43%, Cittadella 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cremonese) and 32% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 32% of games; Cittadella in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cremonese's recent matches and 51% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cremonese's recent games and 32% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cittadella tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cittadella 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.14 xG and Cittadella 0.89 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cittadella landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Cittadella attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 39% | Draw 34% | Cittadella 26%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Cittadella 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cittadella's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.21 PPG, Cittadella 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.