Como 0-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Como host Sudtirol at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Como's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Como) versus 0.75 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 50% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 25% | Sudtirol 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.51 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.795 / defence 1.071 | Sudtirol attack 0.650 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Como's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Como games / 4 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 56% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 18%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Sudtirol 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Como (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Como 60% | Sudtirol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 56% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Como 1.51 / Sudtirol 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.795 / def 1.071 | Sudtirol attack 0.650 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Como (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sudtirol xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Sudtirol kick off?
Como vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Sudtirol?
Como 0 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Como vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Sudtirol part of?
Como vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Como a 56% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Como and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Sudtirol in?
Como (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Como's attack rating (0.80) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.85
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Como xG
Total xG
2.25
0.74
Sudtirol xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Como and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Como and 0.74 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Sudtirol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Como have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 0.50 PPG, Sudtirol on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Como have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Como's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Como 2-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Como and Sudtirol?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 50%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Como) and 75% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 50% of games; Sudtirol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Como's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Como's recent games and 75% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Como 0-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.51 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Como fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Sudtirol attack 0.65 / defence 1.41, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 56% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 18%, with Como to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 25%, Sudtirol 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 0.50 PPG, Sudtirol 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.