Como 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Como welcome Pordenone to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.11 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 0W 2D 7L from 9 Serie B matches — 0.22 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.56 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Como carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.89 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.11 vs 0.22. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pordenone trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 56% versus Pordenone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 22% | Pordenone 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.28 xG and Pordenone 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.808 / defence 1.050 | Pordenone attack 0.711 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.122. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Como games / 9 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 22%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Pordenone 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Como 25% | Pordenone 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Como 1.28 / Pordenone 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.808 / def 1.050 | Pordenone attack 0.711 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pordenone xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Pordenone kick off?
Como vs Pordenone kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Pordenone?
Como 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Como vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Pordenone part of?
Como vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Pordenone a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Como and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pordenone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Pordenone in?
Como (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Pordenone (all comps): 0W-2D-7L in 9 | 0.22 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.56 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Como's attack at 0.81x the league average against Pordenone's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.26
34%
2.94
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Como xG
Total xG
2.12
0.84
Pordenone xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Como and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Como and 0.84 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Como have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone's form line: 0W 2D 7L from 9 games, 0.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Venue Form
On home soil, Como have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.67 scored and 2.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Como have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 (0.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Pordenone away?
Como's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.00 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Como
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Como have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Pordenone 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Pordenone?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 25%, Pordenone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Como and 50% for Pordenone.
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 50% of games; Pordenone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Como's recent matches and 50% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Como's recent games and 50% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.28 xG and Pordenone 0.84 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Pordenone attack 0.71 / defence 1.50, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 22%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 22%, Pordenone 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.