Como 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 6 as Como welcome Benevento to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Como have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento — All Games: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Benevento's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Como's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Benevento trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 40% versus Benevento 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 20% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.72 xG and Benevento 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.650 / defence 1.116 | Benevento attack 0.793 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.430. Como's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Como games / 5 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 19% | Draw 34% | Benevento 47%. Fair-value odds: Como 5.26 | Draw 2.94 | Benevento 2.13. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Como 40% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 19% | Draw 34% | Benevento 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Como 0.72 / Benevento 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.650 / def 1.116 | Benevento attack 0.793 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Benevento (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Benevento xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Benevento kick off?
Como vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Benevento?
Como 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Como vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Benevento part of?
Como vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Como a 19% chance of winning, Benevento a 47% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Como and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Benevento in?
Como (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Como's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
19%
5.37
34%
2.92
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Como xG
Total xG
1.98
1.26
Benevento xG
5.37
19%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
19.02
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.4 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Como and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Como and 1.26 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Como's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 1L across 5 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Como heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Benevento in coming into this match?
Como have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Como or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Benevento in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2022, when Benevento won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Como
2
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Benevento 0-0 Como.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 40%, Benevento 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Como and 40% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 40%; Como have failed to score in 60% of games; Benevento in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Como's recent matches and 40% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Como's recent games and 40% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Benevento tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benevento in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 6, as Como and Benevento drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.72 xG and Benevento 1.26 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.65 / defence 1.12 against Benevento attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 19% | Draw 34% | Benevento 47%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 20%, Benevento 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benevento managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.