Cittadella 0-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cittadella face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Cittadella have posted 0W 7D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sampdoria away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cittadella, 1.40 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cittadella's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — Cittadella have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sampdoria in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Cittadella, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Cittadella 1–2 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 52% versus Sampdoria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 42% | Sampdoria 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cittadella surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.23 xG and Sampdoria 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.751 / defence 0.918 | Sampdoria attack 1.536 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.112. Cittadella's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cittadella's projected output up. Sampdoria have an above-average attack rating of 1.536, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Cittadella's last 48 games and Sampdoria's last 48.
Result probabilities: Cittadella 27% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 43%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.67 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cittadella 60% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 27% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Cittadella 1.23 / Sampdoria 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.751 / def 0.918 | Sampdoria attack 1.536 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sampdoria xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cittadella vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Cittadella vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cittadella vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Sampdoria?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Cittadella vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Sampdoria part of?
Cittadella vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 27% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cittadella and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cittadella vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.75x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.54x) against Cittadella's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Cittadella's last 48 games and Sampdoria's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
27%
3.67
30%
3.33
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.79
1.57
Sampdoria xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cittadella vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.57 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cittadella come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 16D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.42 PPG from 48 outings (19W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cittadella against 1.42 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cittadella's home form reads 7W 9D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 23 away games (10W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 62%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Cittadella (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cittadella
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Cittadella vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Cittadella and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.30 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Cittadella and Sampdoria, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cittadella
1
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Cittadella vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Sampdoria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cittadella have won 1, Sampdoria have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Sampdoria 1-0 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Cittadella, 70% for Sampdoria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cittadella) and 61% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cittadella vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cittadella and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cittadella's games and 70% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cittadella and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cittadella's recent games and 61% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cittadella's recent matches and 65% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 11, as Cittadella and Sampdoria drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.23 xG and Sampdoria 1.57 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against Sampdoria attack 1.54 / defence 1.30, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 27% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 43%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 42%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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