Cittadella 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Parma at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Cittadella welcome Parma to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Parma's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cittadella 1.30 PPG, Parma 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cittadella, 2 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 41% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 35% | Parma 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.24 xG and Parma 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.934 / defence 1.189 | Parma attack 1.042 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Data: 69 Cittadella games / 69 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cittadella 30% | Parma 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Cittadella 1.24 / Parma 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.934 / def 1.189 | Parma attack 1.042 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Parma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Parma kick off?
Cittadella vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Cittadella 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Cittadella vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Parma part of?
Cittadella vs Parma is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 35% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cittadella and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Cittadella and Parma in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.93) and Parma's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.45
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.49
1.25
Parma xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.25 for Parma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cittadella's recent record stands at 21W 25D 23L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 23W 24D 22L across 69 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.28 PPG, Parma on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 11W 12D 11L from 34 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 10W 13D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.23 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Parma in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 21W 25D 23L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Parma have gone 23W 24D 22L in their last 69 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Parma away?
Cittadella's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.32 PPG; Parma away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Cittadella's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
1
Draws
5
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Parma have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Cittadella 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 38%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cittadella) and 44% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Parma in 32%; Cittadella have failed to score in 38% of games; Parma in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cittadella's recent matches and 47% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cittadella's recent games and 44% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Parma tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Parma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Cittadella 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cittadella 0-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.24 xG and Parma 1.25 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Parma attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 35% | Draw 29% | Parma 36%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 35%, Parma 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.28 PPG, Parma 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.