Cesena 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cesena host Sudtirol at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cesena have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Dino Manuzzi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cesena) versus 1.00 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cesena have won 2, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Cesena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 59% versus Sudtirol 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 47% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.041 / defence 1.314 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.104. Data: 70 Cesena games / 70 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 70% | Sudtirol 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Cesena 1.37 / Sudtirol 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.041 / def 1.314 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Sudtirol xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cesena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Cesena 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cesena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Sudtirol part of?
Cesena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cesena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Cesena 2W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Cesena and Sudtirol in?
Cesena (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.04) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.90
1.53
Sudtirol xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cesena and 1.53 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 25W 18D 27L from 70 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 26L across 70 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 13W 11D 10L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 9W 12D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.20 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 25W 18D 27L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 24D 26L in their last 70 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Sudtirol away?
Cesena's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cesena and Sudtirol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cesena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cesena 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Sudtirol?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 62%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cesena) and 50% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cesena's games and 50% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cesena's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 33, as Cesena and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.37 xG and Sudtirol 1.53 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 47%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.