Cesena 4-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi plays host to Cesena versus Mantova in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cesena's record over their last 6 games: 2W 2D 2L (1.33 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across their last 3 home games (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Cesena are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mantova (all games): 3W 1D 2L across their last 6 — 1.67 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mantova's away record over their last 3 away games: 0W 1D 2L (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Cesena, 1.67 for Mantova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Cesena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 67% versus Mantova 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 67% | Mantova 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.67 xG and Mantova 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.074 / defence 1.122 | Mantova attack 0.714 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.089. Mantova's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cesena's projected output up. Mantova's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Cesena's last 6 games and Mantova's last 6.
Result probabilities: Cesena 54% | Draw 28% | Mantova 18%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.84 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 5.67. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cesena 67% (last 3 home games) | Mantova 33% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 54% | Draw 28% | Mantova 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cesena 1.67 / Mantova 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.074 / def 1.122 | Mantova attack 0.714 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Cesena (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mantova xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Mantova kick off?
Cesena vs Mantova kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Mantova?
Cesena 4 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Cesena vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Mantova part of?
Cesena vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 54% chance of winning, Mantova a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cesena and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cesena vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.07) and Mantova's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.71x) against Cesena's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 6 games and Mantova's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.57
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.54
0.87
Mantova xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Cesena and 0.87 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cesena against 1.67 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cesena have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
Cesena (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Cesena vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Cesena and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Mantova have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Mantova away?
Cesena's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.33 PPG; Mantova away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Cesena or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mantova in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won Mantova 3-0 Cesena on 1 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cesena
1
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Mantova?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 2, Mantova have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cesena and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Cesena 1-1 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 67%, Mantova 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cesena) and 33% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mantova in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cesena vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cesena and Mantova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cesena's recent matches and 33% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cesena and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Cesena's recent games and 33% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Cesena's recent matches and 67% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Mantova 4-2 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.67 xG and Mantova 0.87 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Cesena beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Mantova attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 54% | Draw 28% | Mantova 18%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 67%, Mantova 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.33 PPG, Mantova 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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