Cesena 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cesena and Empoli meet at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Empoli have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Cesena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 57% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 41% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.61 xG and Empoli 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.092 / defence 1.012 | Empoli attack 0.858 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.035. Data: 56 Cesena games / 18 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 53% | Draw 27% | Empoli 20%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 5.00. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Cesena 70% | Empoli 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 53% | Draw 27% | Empoli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Cesena 1.61 / Empoli 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.092 / def 1.012 | Empoli attack 0.858 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Cesena (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Empoli kick off?
Cesena vs Empoli kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Empoli?
Cesena 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Cesena vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Empoli part of?
Cesena vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 53% chance of winning, Empoli a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cesena and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Empoli in?
Cesena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.09) and Empoli's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.86x) against Cesena's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.72
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.51
0.90
Empoli xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
25.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cesena and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cesena and 0.90 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cesena's recent record stands at 22W 15D 19L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 25L across 56 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cesena by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 11W 10D 5L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cesena are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Empoli have gone 12W 19D 25L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Empoli away?
Cesena's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.65 PPG; Empoli away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Empoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Empoli 1-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 62%, Empoli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cesena) and 58% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cesena's games and 62% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cesena's recent games and 58% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Empoli tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Empoli in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Cesena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Cesena 0-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.61 xG and Empoli 0.90 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 53% | Draw 27% | Empoli 20%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 41%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.