Catanzaro 3-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Catanzaro vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Catanzaro and Carrarese meet at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Catanzaro's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Catanzaro have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Catanzaro — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Catanzaro 33% | Carrarese 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Catanzaro 0% | Carrarese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Catanzaro 1.35 xG and Carrarese 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Catanzaro attack 0.893 / defence 0.957 | Carrarese attack 0.749 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Catanzaro games / 3 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Catanzaro 49% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Catanzaro 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Carrarese 4.76. Catanzaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Catanzaro as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Catanzaro if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Catanzaro 60% | Carrarese 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Catanzaro vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Catanzaro 49% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Catanzaro 1.35 / Carrarese 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Catanzaro attack 0.893 / def 0.957 | Carrarese attack 0.749 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Catanzaro xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Carrarese xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Catanzaro vs Carrarese kick off?
Catanzaro vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What was the final score in Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Catanzaro 3 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Catanzaro vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What competition is Catanzaro vs Carrarese part of?
Catanzaro vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Catanzaro a 49% chance of winning, Carrarese a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Catanzaro and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Catanzaro vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Catanzaro and Carrarese in?
Catanzaro (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Catanzaro's attack at 0.89x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.75x) against Catanzaro's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.35
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.13
0.79
Carrarese xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Catanzaro and 0.79 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Catanzaro have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Catanzaro, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Catanzaro against 1.00 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Catanzaro are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Catanzaro
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Catanzaro and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Catanzaro have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Catanzaro or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Carrarese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Catanzaro have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Catanzaro
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Catanzaro have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Catanzaro and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Carrarese 3-3 Catanzaro.
Who has won more matches between Catanzaro and Carrarese?
Catanzaro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Catanzaro) and 33% (Carrarese) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Catanzaro and 33% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Catanzaro keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Carrarese in 33%; Catanzaro have failed to score in 67% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Catanzaro home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Catanzaro play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 33% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Catanzaro vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Catanzaro's recent games and 33% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Catanzaro and Carrarese tend to score early?
Catanzaro have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Catanzaro cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Catanzaro beat Carrarese 3-1 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.35 xG and Carrarese 0.79 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Catanzaro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Carrarese attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 49% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 21%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 0%, Carrarese 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Catanzaro's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Catanzaro 0.67 PPG, Carrarese 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Catanzaro win broke the near-deadlock. Catanzaro scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Carrarese shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.