Carrarese 3-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Empoli have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Empoli 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.23 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.943 / defence 0.899 | Empoli attack 0.861 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.048. Data: 58 Carrarese games / 20 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 4.17. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Empoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Carrarese 1.23 / Empoli 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.943 / def 0.899 | Empoli attack 0.861 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Empoli xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Empoli kick off?
Carrarese vs Empoli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Empoli?
Carrarese 3 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Carrarese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Empoli part of?
Carrarese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 45% chance of winning, Empoli a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Carrarese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Empoli in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.86x) against Carrarese's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.27
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.04
0.81
Empoli xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.81 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 17W 20D 21L from 58 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 26L across 58 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Carrarese against 1.00 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 13W 9D 6L from 28 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Empoli's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 17W 20D 21L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 19D 26L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Empoli away?
Carrarese's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.71 PPG; Empoli away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Empoli in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Carrarese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Empoli?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 36%, Empoli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 57% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Carrarese's recent matches and 61% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 57% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Empoli tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Empoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Empoli 3-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.23 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Empoli 24%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.22 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.