Cagliari 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Reggina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggina have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cagliari, 1.80 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reggina — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 58% versus Reggina 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Reggina 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.98 xG and Reggina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.841 / defence 1.249 | Reggina attack 0.780 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Data: 10 Cagliari games / 48 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 32% | Draw 30% | Reggina 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Reggina 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Reggina 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 32% | Draw 30% | Reggina 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Cagliari 0.98 / Reggina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.841 / def 1.249 | Reggina attack 0.780 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Reggina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Reggina xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Reggina kick off?
Cagliari vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Reggina?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Cagliari vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Reggina part of?
Cagliari vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 32% chance of winning, Reggina a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cagliari and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Reggina in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Reggina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.78x) against Cagliari's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
32%
3.11
30%
3.31
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.06
1.08
Reggina xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.08 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari come into this having played 48 games, going 10W 14D 24L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (19W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cagliari's home form reads 6W 6D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.04 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Reggina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 14D 24L in their last 48 games (0.92 PPG), while Reggina have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.00 PPG; Reggina away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Reggina in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Reggina have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Reggina 0-4 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Reggina?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 71%, Reggina 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cagliari) and 21% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Reggina in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Cagliari's recent matches and 29% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cagliari's recent games and 21% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Reggina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Reggina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 11, as Cagliari and Reggina drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.98 xG and Reggina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Reggina attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 32% | Draw 30% | Reggina 38%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Reggina 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.