Cagliari 2-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Cosenza at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Cagliari carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cosenza trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 62% versus Cosenza 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Cosenza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.069 / defence 1.250 | Cosenza attack 0.712 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Cagliari games / 56 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 5.26. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Cagliari 1.73 / Cosenza 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.069 / def 1.250 | Cosenza attack 0.712 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cosenza xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Cosenza kick off?
Cagliari vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Cosenza?
Cagliari 2 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Cagliari vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Cosenza part of?
Cagliari vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 53% chance of winning, Cosenza a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Cosenza in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.07) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.64
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.70
0.97
Cosenza xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
29.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.97 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 19D 26L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cosenza sit at 0.98 PPG from 56 outings (13W 16D 27L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.93 PPG, Cosenza on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Cosenza have taken 0.52 points per game from 27 outings (1W 11D 15L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.96 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 19D 26L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 27L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Cosenza away?
Cagliari's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.07 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cagliari
0
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Cosenza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Cosenza 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Cosenza?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 74%, Cosenza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 37% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 56% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 37% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Cosenza 2-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Cosenza attack 0.71 / defence 1.42, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 53% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 19%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Cosenza 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.93 PPG, Cosenza 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.