Brescia 5-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 2 as Brescia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia carry the stronger recent momentum — 3.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Brescia's 0% and Cosenza's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.09 xG and Cosenza 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Cosenza attack 0.722 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 0.915. Data: 1 Brescia games / 1 Cosenza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brescia 43% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 25%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 43% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Brescia 1.09 / Cosenza 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Cosenza attack 0.722 / def 1.136 | league avg home 0.985 / away 0.915 • Poisson stance: Brescia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cosenza xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cosenza kick off?
Brescia vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Brescia 5 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Brescia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cosenza part of?
Brescia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 43% chance of winning, Cosenza a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Brescia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Cosenza (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.16
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.85
0.76
Cosenza xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Brescia and 0.76 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Brescia have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Brescia's scoring rate against Cosenza's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Cosenza in 0%.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Brescia or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Cosenza in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brescia
4
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
From 10 meetings on record, Brescia have won 4, Cosenza have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cosenza?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Brescia's recent matches and 0% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Brescia's recent games and 0% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brescia run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Cosenza 5-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.09 xG and Cosenza 0.76 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Cosenza attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 43% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 25%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 0%, Cosenza 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brescia scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.