Brescia 0-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brescia host Modena at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Modena — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Brescia have won 1, Modena 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Modena trading profile (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 48% versus Modena 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 35% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.28 xG and Modena 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.825 / defence 1.141 | Modena attack 1.099 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Brescia games / 23 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 27% | Modena 36%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 27% | Modena 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Brescia 1.28 / Modena 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.825 / def 1.141 | Modena attack 1.099 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Modena xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Modena kick off?
Brescia vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Modena?
Brescia 0 - 1 Modena.
Where is Brescia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Modena part of?
Brescia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 36% chance of winning, Modena a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brescia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Brescia and Modena in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Modena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.82) and Modena's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.65
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.58
1.29
Modena xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Brescia and 1.29 for Modena, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 7D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.09 PPG, Modena on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.48 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Modena in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Modena have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Modena away?
Brescia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.33 PPG; Modena away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Modena specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Modena 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Brescia) and 67% (Modena).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Brescia's games and 67% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Brescia's recent games and 67% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Modena tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Brescia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Brescia 0-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.28 xG and Modena 1.29 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brescia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 1.10 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 36% | Draw 27% | Modena 36%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 35%, Modena 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.09 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.