Benevento 2-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Parma travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Parma — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 1 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 44% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 35% | Parma 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.92 xG and Parma 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.773 / defence 1.224 | Parma attack 1.025 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 0.992. Benevento's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Benevento games / 72 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Parma 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Parma 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Benevento 0.92 / Parma 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.773 / def 1.224 | Parma attack 1.025 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.107 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Parma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Parma kick off?
Benevento vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Parma?
Benevento 2 - 2 Parma.
Where is Benevento vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Parma part of?
Benevento vs Parma is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 26% chance of winning, Parma a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Benevento and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Benevento and Parma in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Parma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
26%
3.90
32%
3.12
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.16
1.25
Parma xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Benevento and 1.25 for Parma, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 25W 21D 26L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Parma's form line: 25W 25D 22L from 72 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.33 PPG, Parma on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (13W 8D 14L).
On the road, Parma have gone 11W 13D 11L from 35 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Parma in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Parma have gone 25W 25D 22L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Parma away?
Benevento's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.34 PPG; Parma away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Benevento or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Benevento 2-2 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 49%, Parma 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Benevento) and 40% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma in 34%; Benevento have failed to score in 31% of games; Parma in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Benevento's recent matches and 46% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Parma tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Parma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Parma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento and Parma finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.92 xG and Parma 1.25 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Parma attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 26% | Draw 32% | Parma 42%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 35%, Parma 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.33 PPG, Parma 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.