Benevento 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 38% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 35% | Cremonese 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.28 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.299 / defence 0.998 | Cremonese attack 1.022 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.137. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Benevento games / 26 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Benevento 30% | Cremonese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.28 / Cremonese 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.299 / def 0.998 | Cremonese attack 1.022 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cremonese kick off?
Benevento vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cremonese?
Benevento 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Benevento vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cremonese part of?
Benevento vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Benevento and Cremonese in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.02x) against Benevento's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.44
1.16
Cremonese xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Benevento and 1.16 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 13W 7D 6L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 14W 7D 5L from 26 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Benevento against 1.88 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 7W 2D 4L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.54 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 13W 7D 6L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 14W 7D 5L in their last 26 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Cremonese away?
Benevento's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.85 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Benevento or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cremonese in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
2
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Cremonese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Benevento 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 38%, Cremonese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Benevento) and 46% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cremonese in 31%; Benevento have failed to score in 38% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Benevento's recent matches and 46% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Benevento's recent games and 46% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cremonese tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento and Cremonese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.28 xG and Cremonese 1.16 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Cremonese attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 37% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 31%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 35%, Cremonese 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.77 PPG, Cremonese 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.