Bari 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Ternana meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bari lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 47% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 32% | Ternana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.42 xG and Ternana 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.859 / defence 0.972 | Ternana attack 1.202 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.188. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ternana have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Bari games / 57 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Bari 1.42 / Ternana 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.859 / def 0.972 | Ternana attack 1.202 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Ternana xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Ternana kick off?
Bari vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Ternana?
Bari 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Bari vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Ternana part of?
Bari vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 37% chance of winning, Ternana a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bari and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 2 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Bari and Ternana in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bari's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.20x) against Bari's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.61
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bari xG
Total xG
2.81
1.39
Ternana xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bari and 1.39 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari's recent record stands at 21W 23D 13L from 57 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 26L across 57 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bari have managed 10W 13D 5L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 5W 7D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Ternana in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 21W 23D 13L in their last 57 games (1.51 PPG), while Ternana have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Ternana away?
Bari's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.54 PPG; Ternana away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bari or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ternana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Ternana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Ternana 0-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Ternana?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 46%, Ternana 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 68% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 32% of games; Ternana in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Bari's games and 64% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 68% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Ternana tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Ternana in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Ternana 3-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.42 xG and Ternana 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Ternana attack 1.20 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 37% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 32%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.