Bari 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Parma travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Parma — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bari have won 1, Parma 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 52% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 37% | Parma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.82 xG and Parma 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.867 / defence 1.007 | Parma attack 1.041 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Parma's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Bari games / 73 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 22% | Draw 34% | Parma 44%. Fair-value odds: Bari 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Parma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 22% | Draw 34% | Parma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bari 0.82 / Parma 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.867 / def 1.007 | Parma attack 1.041 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Parma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Parma xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Parma kick off?
Bari vs Parma kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Parma?
Bari 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Bari vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Parma part of?
Bari vs Parma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 22% chance of winning, Parma a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bari and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Bari and Parma in?
Bari (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bari's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
22%
4.50
34%
2.98
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Bari xG
Total xG
2.06
1.25
Parma xG
4.50
22%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.8 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bari and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Bari and 1.25 for Parma, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari come into this having played 75 games, going 25W 28D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.80 PPG from 75 outings (38W 21D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Bari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bari's home form reads 13W 16D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.62 points per game from 37 outings (16W 12D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Parma in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 25W 28D 22L in their last 75 games (1.37 PPG), while Parma have gone 38W 21D 16L in their last 75 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.49 PPG; Parma away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bari or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2023, when Bari won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Bari 1-1 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 51%, Parma 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bari) and 49% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma in 35%; Bari have failed to score in 30% of games; Parma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Bari's recent matches and 49% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bari's recent games and 49% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Parma tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Parma in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 36, as Bari and Parma drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.82 xG and Parma 1.25 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Parma attack 1.04 / defence 0.77, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 22% | Draw 34% | Parma 44%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Parma 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.