Bari 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bari — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season: 2W 5D 1L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bari at 1.20 PPG versus Genoa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Genoa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 44% | Genoa 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.188 / defence 1.105 | Genoa attack 0.830 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.081. Data: 18 Bari games / 18 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 32% | Genoa 28%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Bari 62% | Genoa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 32% | Genoa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Bari 1.24 / Genoa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.188 / def 1.105 | Genoa attack 0.830 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Genoa kick off?
Bari vs Genoa kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Genoa?
Bari 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Bari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Genoa part of?
Bari vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 40% chance of winning, Genoa a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bari and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Genoa in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.19) and Genoa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.11
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Bari xG
Total xG
2.23
0.99
Genoa xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Bari and 0.99 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 7W 9D 2L from 18 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 4L across 18 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.67 PPG, Genoa on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 2W 5D 1L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 0.72 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Genoa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 7W 9D 2L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Genoa have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.38 PPG; Genoa away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bari or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bari
0
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Genoa 4-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 62%, Genoa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bari) and 38% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%; Bari have failed to score in 38% of games; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bari's recent matches and 38% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bari's recent games and 38% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Genoa tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Bari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Bari 1-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 40% | Draw 32% | Genoa 28%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 44%, Genoa 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.67 PPG, Genoa 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.