Avellino 0-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Pescara travel to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to take on Avellino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Avellino have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pescara stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Avellino 0.90 PPG, Pescara 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Avellino, 0 for Pescara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Avellino trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pescara trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Avellino 58% and Pescara 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 54% | Pescara 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 2.08 xG and Pescara 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.041 / defence 1.456 | Pescara attack 0.832 / defence 1.571. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.063. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.571 — this is suppressing Avellino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Avellino games / 24 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 55% | Draw 22% | Pescara 23%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Pescara 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Avellino (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avellino 70% | Pescara 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 55% | Draw 22% | Pescara 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Avellino 2.08 / Pescara 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.041 / def 1.456 | Pescara attack 0.832 / def 1.571 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Avellino (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Pescara xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Pescara kick off?
Avellino vs Pescara kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Pescara?
Avellino 0 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Avellino vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Pescara part of?
Avellino vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 55% chance of winning, Pescara a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Avellino and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 1 | Pescara 0W.
What form are Avellino and Pescara in?
Avellino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Pescara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Avellino's attack at 1.04x the league average against Pescara's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.48
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Avellino xG
Total xG
3.37
1.29
Pescara xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
3%
35.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Avellino and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Avellino and 1.29 for Pescara, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 7D 10L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pescara's form line: 2W 9D 13L from 24 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Avellino are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
On the road, Pescara have gone 0W 4D 7L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Avellino are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Pescara in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Pescara have gone 2W 9D 13L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Pescara away?
Avellino's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.36 PPG; Pescara away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avellino and Pescara runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avellino
1
Draws
1
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Pescara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Avellino 0-1 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Pescara?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Avellino at 64%, Pescara at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Avellino and 73% for Pescara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 27% of games; Pescara in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Avellino's games and 73% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avellino vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Avellino's matches and 73% of Pescara's.
Do Avellino and Pescara tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Pescara in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pescara defy the odds to beat Avellino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Avellino 0-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 2.08 xG and Pescara 1.29 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Avellino fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.04 / defence 1.46 against Pescara attack 0.83 / defence 1.57, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 55% | Draw 22% | Pescara 23%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Pescara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 54%, Pescara 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pescara's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.