Ascoli 0-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ascoli take on Spal.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 28 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 4W 2D 3L across 9 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.56 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 1.44 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.56 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games (1.11 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.56 PPG for Ascoli against 1.11 for Spal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ascoli 67% and Spal 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 56% | Spal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.96 xG and Spal 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.881 / defence 1.302 | Spal attack 0.591 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.129. Data: 9 Ascoli games / 9 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 37% | Spal 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Spal 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 50% | Spal 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 37% | Spal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Ascoli 0.96 / Spal 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.881 / def 1.302 | Spal attack 0.591 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Spal xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Spal kick off?
Ascoli vs Spal kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Spal?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Spal.
Where is Ascoli vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Spal part of?
Ascoli vs Spal is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 34% chance of winning, Spal a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ascoli and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Spal in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.88x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.59x) against Ascoli's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
37%
2.69
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.83
0.87
Spal xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.87 for Spal, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ascoli come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 2D 3L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ascoli's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Spal have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Spal in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Spal have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Spal away?
Ascoli's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Spal away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Spal have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Spal 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ascoli and 25% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Spal in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ascoli's recent matches and 25% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ascoli's recent games and 25% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Spal tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spal defy the odds to beat Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.96 xG and Spal 0.87 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Spal attack 0.59 / defence 1.02, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 34% | Draw 37% | Spal 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 56%, Spal 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Spal's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Spal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Spal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.