Ascoli 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Ascoli take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ascoli, 1.20 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ascoli have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Pisa in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Pisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Pisa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.96 xG and Pisa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.959 / defence 1.066 | Pisa attack 0.906 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 0.992. Data: 72 Ascoli games / 72 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 35% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 33% | Draw 35% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Ascoli 0.96 / Pisa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.959 / def 1.066 | Pisa attack 0.906 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.107 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Pisa kick off?
Ascoli vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Pisa?
Ascoli 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Ascoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Pisa part of?
Ascoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ascoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 1 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.96) and Pisa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.91x) against Ascoli's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
35%
2.87
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.92
0.96
Pisa xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.96 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 30W 18D 25L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 27W 26D 20L from 73 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Ascoli against 1.47 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 11W 13D 13L from 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 30W 18D 25L in their last 73 games (1.48 PPG), while Pisa have gone 27W 26D 20L in their last 73 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Pisa away?
Ascoli's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.35 PPG; Pisa away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Pisa?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 46%, Pisa 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Ascoli and 32% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pisa in 32%; Ascoli have failed to score in 35% of games; Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ascoli's recent matches and 49% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ascoli's recent games and 32% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.96 xG and Pisa 0.96 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 33% | Draw 35% | Pisa 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 37%, Pisa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.48 PPG, Pisa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.