Ascoli 1-3 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Parma meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Parma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Ascoli's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ascoli 1W, Parma 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Ascoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 51% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 40% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.22 xG and Parma 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.914 / defence 0.818 | Parma attack 1.089 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.078. Data: 43 Ascoli games / 43 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 42% | Draw 29% | Parma 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 42% | Draw 29% | Parma 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Ascoli 1.22 / Parma 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.914 / def 0.818 | Parma attack 1.089 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Parma kick off?
Ascoli vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Parma?
Ascoli 1 - 3 Parma.
Where is Ascoli vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Parma part of?
Ascoli vs Parma is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 42% chance of winning, Parma a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ascoli and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Parma in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.91x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.09x) against Ascoli's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.45
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.18
0.96
Parma xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.96 for Parma, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 20W 10D 13L from 43 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 12L across 43 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Ascoli against 1.28 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 6W 9D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.30 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Parma in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 19D 12L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Parma away?
Ascoli's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.52 PPG; Parma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Parma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Parma 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 52%, Parma 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 52% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Parma in 38%; Ascoli have failed to score in 29% of games; Parma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ascoli's recent matches and 52% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 52% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Parma tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Ascoli 1-3 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.22 xG and Parma 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Parma outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 0.82 against Parma attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 42% | Draw 29% | Parma 29%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Parma 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.63 PPG, Parma 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.