Ascoli 2-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crotone make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:35 UTC.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Ascoli's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ascoli 0W, Crotone 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Crotone — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 56% versus Crotone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 44% | Crotone 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.27 xG and Crotone 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.881 / defence 1.127 | Crotone attack 0.625 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.158. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ascoli games / 25 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 44% | Draw 35% | Crotone 21%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Crotone 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 60% | Crotone 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 44% | Draw 35% | Crotone 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Ascoli 1.27 / Crotone 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.881 / def 1.127 | Crotone attack 0.625 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Crotone xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Crotone kick off?
Ascoli vs Crotone kicked off at 14:35 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Crotone?
Ascoli 2 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Ascoli vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Crotone part of?
Ascoli vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 44% chance of winning, Crotone a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ascoli and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 1 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Crotone in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.88x the league average against Crotone's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.62x) against Ascoli's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
44%
2.27
35%
2.85
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.09
0.82
Crotone xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
17.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.82 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 11W 6D 8L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone's form line: 2W 9D 14L from 25 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L). That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 3D 9L from 12 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Crotone in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Crotone have gone 2W 9D 14L in their last 25 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Crotone away?
Ascoli's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.08 PPG; Crotone away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Ascoli 2-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Crotone?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Crotone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 42% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Crotone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ascoli's recent matches and 50% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 42% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Crotone tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crotone in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Crotone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Crotone 2-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.27 xG and Crotone 0.82 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Crotone attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 44% | Draw 35% | Crotone 21%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 44%, Crotone 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crotone's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.