Ascoli 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Ascoli's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ascoli lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Ascoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ascoli 62% and Como 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 48% | Como 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.95 xG and Como 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.749 / defence 1.291 | Como attack 0.912 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.140. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ascoli games / 21 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 24% | Draw 33% | Como 43%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Como 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ascoli (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Ascoli 50% | Como 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 24% | Draw 33% | Como 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Ascoli 0.95 / Como 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.749 / def 1.291 | Como attack 0.912 / def 1.300 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Como (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Como xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Como kick off?
Ascoli vs Como kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Como?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Ascoli vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Como part of?
Ascoli vs Como is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 24% chance of winning, Como a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Como?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ascoli and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Como in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Como (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.75x the league average against Como's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.91x) against Ascoli's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
24%
4.22
33%
3.00
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.29
1.34
Como xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.34 for Como, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 5D 7L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Ascoli against 1.29 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ascoli's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.52 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Como in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Como in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Como have gone 6W 9D 6L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 0.90 PPG; Como away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ascoli
3
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Como have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Como last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Como 0-2 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Como?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Como 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Ascoli) and 50% (Como).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ascoli's games and 70% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ascoli's recent games and 50% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Como tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Como in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli and Como finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.95 xG and Como 1.34 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Como attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 24% | Draw 33% | Como 43%, with Como to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 48%, Como 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.52 PPG, Como 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.