Venezia 3-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Udinese at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Venezia welcome Udinese to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Udinese — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Venezia have won 0, Udinese 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 66% | Udinese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.99 xG and Udinese 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.664 / defence 1.050 | Udinese attack 0.872 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.274. Venezia's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Venezia games / 47 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 33% | Udinese 38%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Udinese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Udinese 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 33% | Udinese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Venezia 0.99 / Udinese 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.664 / def 1.050 | Udinese attack 0.872 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Udinese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Udinese xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Udinese kick off?
Venezia vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Venezia 3 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Venezia vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Udinese part of?
Venezia vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 29% chance of winning, Udinese a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Venezia and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Venezia and Udinese in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Udinese (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Venezia vs Udinese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.66x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.16
1.17
Udinese xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Venezia and 1.17 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 8D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (11W 20D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Venezia's home form reads 15W 2D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.04 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Udinese in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 23W 8D 16L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 20D 16L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Udinese away?
Venezia's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.14 PPG; Udinese away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Venezia or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Udinese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 64%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Venezia) and 32% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Venezia's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Venezia's recent games and 32% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Udinese tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Udinese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Udinese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Udinese 3-2 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.99 xG and Udinese 1.17 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 29% | Draw 33% | Udinese 38%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 66%, Udinese 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.