Venezia 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie A (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Venezia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Parma have gone 1W 8D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Venezia, 0.80 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Venezia, 2 for Parma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended Venezia 1–2 Parma — a Parma win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 57% and Parma 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 65% | Parma 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.39 xG and Parma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.892 / defence 1.112 | Parma attack 0.876 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.308. Data: built from Venezia's last 11 games and Parma's last 11.
Result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.52 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Venezia 1.39 / Parma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.892 / def 1.112 | Parma attack 0.876 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Venezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Parma xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Parma FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Parma kick off?
Venezia vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Parma?
Venezia 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Venezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Parma part of?
Venezia vs Parma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.88x) against Venezia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 11 games and Parma's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.85
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.27
Parma xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Venezia and 1.27 for Parma, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 24W 8D 17L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Parma's form line: 22W 19D 8L from 49 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Venezia against 1.73 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Parma have gone 9W 10D 4L from their last 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.63 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 65%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 8D 17L in their last 49 games (1.63 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 19D 8L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Parma away?
Venezia's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.17 PPG; Parma away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Venezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Venezia and Parma, the earliest from December 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 1, Parma have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Parma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Venezia and 56% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Parma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Venezia's games and 61% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Venezia's matches and 56% of Parma's.
Do Venezia and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Venezia's recent matches and 65% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.39 xG and Parma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Parma attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 65%, Parma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.63 PPG, Parma 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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