Venezia 1-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Monza in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Venezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Monza (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Monza's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Venezia, 0 for Monza and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Venezia 2–2 Monza — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Monza — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 55% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 55% | Monza 45%). Note also that Monza surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.21 xG and Monza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.616 / defence 0.925 | Monza attack 0.803 / defence 1.556. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.181. Venezia's attack rating of 0.616 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Monza's defence rating of 1.556 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Venezia's last 31 games and Monza's last 69.
Result probabilities: Venezia 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.39 | Draw 3.01 | Monza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Monza 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Venezia 1.21 / Monza 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.616 / def 0.925 | Monza attack 0.803 / def 1.556 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Venezia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Monza xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Monza FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Monza kick off?
Venezia vs Monza kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Monza?
Venezia 1 - 0 Monza.
Where is Venezia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Monza part of?
Venezia vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Venezia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.62x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.80x) against Venezia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 31 games and Monza's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.01
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.08
0.88
Monza xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Venezia and 0.88 for Monza, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 18D 26L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Monza sit at 0.87 PPG from 69 outings (13W 21D 35L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 17W 7D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 34 away games (6W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.93 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
Venezia (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Venezia vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Monza in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 18D 26L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 21D 35L in their last 69 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Monza away?
Venezia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.71 PPG; Monza away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Venezia and Monza, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Monza?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Monza 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Monza?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 59%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Venezia) and 47% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Venezia's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Venezia's recent games and 47% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Venezia's recent matches and 59% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Monza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.21 xG and Monza 0.88 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.62 / defence 0.93 against Monza attack 0.80 / defence 1.56, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 55%, Monza 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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