Torino vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico di Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico di Torino: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico di Torino than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Torino) versus 1.40 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Torino.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 65% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.25 xG and Bologna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.118 / defence 1.118 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Torino games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 70% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 36% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Torino 1.25 / Bologna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.118 / def 1.118 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Bologna kick off?
Torino vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
Where is Torino vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Bologna part of?
Torino vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 36% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Torino and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 3 | Bologna 5W.
What form are Torino and Bologna in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.74
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Torino xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Bologna xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Torino and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Torino and 1.29 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 9D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.12 PPG, Bologna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Bologna in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.40 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Torino or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 65%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Torino and 50% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Torino's games and 55% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Torino's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
Do Torino and Bologna tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.