Torino 0-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Torino, 1.60 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Torino have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Torino 0W, AS Roma 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 51% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 40% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.893 / defence 0.957 | AS Roma attack 0.832 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.346. Data: 37 Torino games / 37 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 37% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 31%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Torino 60% | AS Roma 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 37% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Torino 1.19 / AS Roma 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.893 / def 0.957 | AS Roma attack 0.832 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Torino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 37% chance of winning, AS Roma a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.83x) against Torino's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.22
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Torino xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
AS Roma xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Torino and 1.07 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Torino have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 13W 11D 13L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 17W 9D 11L from 37 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Torino against 1.62 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 8L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.51 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 13W 11D 13L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
Torino's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.61 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 61%, AS Roma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Torino) and 56% (AS Roma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Torino's games and 61% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Torino's matches and 56% of AS Roma's.
Do Torino and AS Roma tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 0-3 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Torino fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against AS Roma attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 37% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 31%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 40%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.35 PPG, AS Roma 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.