Sassuolo 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Genoa travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 December 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 2W 2D 6L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Sassuolo) versus 0.90 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sassuolo, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 61% versus Genoa 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 59% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.48 xG and Genoa 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.946 / defence 1.276 | Genoa attack 0.680 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.115. Data: 54 Sassuolo games / 16 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 4.17. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 70% | Genoa 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sassuolo 1.48 / Genoa 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.946 / def 1.276 | Genoa attack 0.680 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Genoa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 December 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Sassuolo vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Genoa part of?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 48% chance of winning, Genoa a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sassuolo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Genoa xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.97 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 13D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.67 PPG from 54 outings (25W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.28 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Genoa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Genoa have gone 25W 15D 14L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Genoa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.33 PPG; Genoa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Genoa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 59%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sassuolo) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sassuolo's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Genoa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Genoa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.48 xG and Genoa 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Genoa attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 59%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.