Sampdoria 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Salernitana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 45% versus Salernitana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Salernitana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.16 xG and Salernitana 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.598 / defence 1.086 | Salernitana attack 0.946 / defence 1.512. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.153. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.512 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sampdoria games / 62 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 35% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 37%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Salernitana 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 35% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sampdoria 1.16 / Salernitana 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.598 / def 1.086 | Salernitana attack 0.946 / def 1.512 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Salernitana xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Salernitana kick off?
Sampdoria vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Sampdoria vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Salernitana part of?
Sampdoria vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 35% chance of winning, Salernitana a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sampdoria and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Salernitana?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Salernitana in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.95x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.57
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
Salernitana xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.18 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 12W 11D 39L from 62 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 33L across 62 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Sampdoria against 0.89 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 6W 6D 18L from 30 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.98 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 11D 39L in their last 62 games (0.76 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 13W 16D 33L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Salernitana away?
Salernitana's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.80 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sampdoria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salernitana won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Salernitana?
From 7 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Salernitana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2025, when Sampdoria 2-0 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 53%, Salernitana 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sampdoria) and 60% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 37% of games; Salernitana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sampdoria's games and 57% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sampdoria's matches and 60% of Salernitana's.
Do Sampdoria and Salernitana tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, as Sampdoria and Salernitana drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.16 xG and Salernitana 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Salernitana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.60 / defence 1.09 against Salernitana attack 0.95 / defence 1.51, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 35% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 37%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.76 PPG, Salernitana 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.