Salernitana 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Stadio Arechi this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Napoli have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Napoli are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 50% versus Napoli 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Salernitana 70% | Napoli 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.78 xG and Napoli 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.810 / defence 1.373 | Napoli attack 1.162 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.398. Napoli's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Salernitana games / 10 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 12% | Draw 18% | Napoli 70%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Napoli 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 40% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 12% | Draw 18% | Napoli 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 48% | xG Salernitana 0.78 / Napoli 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.810 / def 1.373 | Napoli attack 1.162 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Napoli (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Napoli xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Napoli kick off?
Salernitana vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Napoli?
Salernitana 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Salernitana vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Napoli part of?
Salernitana vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 12% chance of winning, Napoli a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salernitana and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Napoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Napoli in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Napoli (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.81) and Napoli's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.16x) against Salernitana's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.23.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
12%
8.65
18%
5.55
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Salernitana xG
Total xG
3.01
2.23
Napoli xG
8.65
12%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
11%
9.30
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
1%
80.45
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Salernitana and 2.23 for Napoli, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 1D 7L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.80 PPG from 10 outings (9W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.10 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Salernitana's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.20 scored and 0.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Napoli in 30%.
Defensively: Napoli in 70% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Napoli in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Napoli have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 (2.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.80 PPG; Napoli away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Napoli in 70%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 4-1 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
1
Draws
5
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Napoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Napoli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Napoli 2-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 40%, Napoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Salernitana and 80% for Napoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli in 60%; Salernitana have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Salernitana's recent matches and 40% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Salernitana's matches and 80% of Napoli's.
Do Salernitana and Napoli tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Napoli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Salernitana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Salernitana 0-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.78 xG and Napoli 2.23 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Napoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.81 / defence 1.37 against Napoli attack 1.16 / defence 0.75, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 12% | Draw 18% | Napoli 70%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 70%, Napoli 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.80 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.