Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Hellas Verona encounter.

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Analysis

Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie A (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Salernitana (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Salernitana have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hellas Verona have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hellas Verona away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hellas Verona are 1.10 PPG clear of Salernitana over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Salernitana edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2023, ended Salernitana 1–0 Hellas Verona — a Salernitana win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 57% versus Hellas Verona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 60% | Hellas Verona 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.99 xG and Hellas Verona 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.773 / defence 1.387 | Hellas Verona attack 0.812 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.191. Salernitana's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.387 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 74 games and Hellas Verona's last 74.

Result probabilities: Salernitana 27% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 44%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.77 | Draw 3.36 | Hellas Verona 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Salernitana 70% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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