Pisa 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Atalanta in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 16 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 1W 3D 6L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atalanta (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atalanta are 1.10 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pisa 0W, Atalanta 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Atalanta 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Atalanta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.49 xG and Atalanta 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.435 / defence 1.133 | Atalanta attack 1.015 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.183. Pisa's attack strength of 0.435 is below the league average — the 0.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Pisa games / 58 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 13% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 59%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 7.69 | Draw 3.57 | Atalanta 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 0% | Atalanta 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 13% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 29% | xG Pisa 0.49 / Atalanta 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.435 / def 1.133 | Atalanta attack 1.015 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.49
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Atalanta xG
29%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Atalanta kick off?
Pisa vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Atalanta?
Pisa 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Pisa vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Atalanta part of?
Pisa vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 13% chance of winning, Atalanta a 59% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Pisa and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Pisa and Atalanta in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Atalanta (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.43x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.01x) against Pisa's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 20.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 0-2 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
13%
7.49
28%
3.56
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
0 – 2
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.49
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.85
1.36
Atalanta xG
7.49
13%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.47
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
61%
1.63
Win to Nil
3%
29.18
36%
2.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 21.4 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.49 expected goals for Pisa and 1.36 for Atalanta, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 18D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (30W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Pisa against 1.81 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.93 points per game from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.78 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 18D 17L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 30W 15D 13L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.71 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Pisa or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Atalanta?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Atalanta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Pisa 1-1 Atalanta.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 39%, Atalanta 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pisa) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Atalanta in 50%; Pisa have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Pisa's recent matches and 39% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Atalanta tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.49 xG and Atalanta 1.36 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.43 / defence 1.13 against Atalanta attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 13% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 59%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.50 PPG, Atalanta 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.