Parma 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Parma against 1.40 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 65% versus Empoli 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 52% | Empoli 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.29 xG and Empoli 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.021 / defence 1.362 | Empoli attack 1.008 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.255. Data: 8 Parma games / 46 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 27% | Draw 27% | Empoli 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 2.17. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 70% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 27% | Draw 27% | Empoli 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Parma 1.29 / Empoli 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.021 / def 1.362 | Empoli attack 1.008 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Empoli (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Empoli xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Empoli kick off?
Parma vs Empoli kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Empoli?
Parma 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Parma vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Empoli part of?
Parma vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 27% chance of winning, Empoli a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Parma and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Empoli in?
Parma (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Parma vs Empoli?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.02) and Empoli's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (1.01x) against Parma's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
27%
3.66
27%
3.73
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Parma xG
Total xG
3.02
1.72
Empoli xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
5%
20.53
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Parma and 1.72 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Parma have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 22W 17D 7L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 11W 13D 22L from 46 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (12W 8D 3L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.76 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Empoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 22W 17D 7L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Empoli away?
Parma's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.91 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Empoli in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Parma
1
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 0, Empoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Empoli 2-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 70%, Empoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Parma) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Parma's games and 44% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Parma's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Empoli tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Empoli in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 9, as Parma and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.29 xG and Empoli 1.72 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.02 / defence 1.36 against Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 27% | Draw 27% | Empoli 46%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 52%, Empoli 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.