Parma 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AS Roma at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs AS Roma encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Parma have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Parma at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AS Roma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AS Roma away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Parma's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Parma's games and 70% of AS Roma's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Parma, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2024, ended Parma 0–5 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 68% and AS Roma 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | AS Roma 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.28 xG and AS Roma 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.928 / defence 1.406 | AS Roma attack 0.915 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.296. Parma's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 24 games and AS Roma's last 62.

Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 43%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.79 | Draw 3.31 | AS Roma 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 90% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).

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