Napoli 2-1 Torino – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Napoli (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Napoli face Torino.

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Match Analysis

Napoli host Torino at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Napoli have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Napoli at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Napoli are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Torino — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Torino have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Napoli hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 2 for Torino and 1 draw.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Napoli 0–1 Torino — a Torino win.

The head-to-head data gives Napoli an edge — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Napoli in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Torino in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Torino 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 49% | Torino 40%). Note also that Torino surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Napoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 2.00 xG and Torino 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.177 / defence 0.908 | Torino attack 0.843 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.183. Torino's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Napoli's projected output up. Data: built from Napoli's last 65 games and Torino's last 65.

Result probabilities: Napoli 63% | Draw 21% | Torino 16%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.59 | Draw 4.79 | Torino 6.15. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Napoli's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Napoli 70% (last 10 home games) | Torino 30% (last 10 away games).

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