Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Lecce take on Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare to take on Lecce. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecce at 1.00 PPG versus Fiorentina's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lecce register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 57% versus Fiorentina 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 43% | Fiorentina 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.98 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.761 / defence 1.120 | Fiorentina attack 0.725 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.168. Lecce's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Lecce games / 47 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 36% | Fiorentina 31%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Fiorentina 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lecce 60% | Fiorentina 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 36% | Fiorentina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Lecce 0.98 / Fiorentina 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.761 / def 1.120 | Fiorentina attack 0.725 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Fiorentina xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Fiorentina kick off?
Lecce vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Lecce 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Lecce vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Fiorentina part of?
Lecce vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 33% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lecce and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Fiorentina in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
36%
2.81
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lecce xG
Total xG
1.93
0.95
Fiorentina xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lecce and 0.95 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce's recent record stands at 20W 18D 9L from 47 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 18L across 47 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.66 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 13W 8D 2L from 23 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 6W 4D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 20W 18D 9L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 21W 8D 18L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Fiorentina away?
Lecce's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.04 PPG; Fiorentina away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Lecce or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Fiorentina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 61%, Fiorentina 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lecce) and 52% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lecce's games and 61% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lecce's recent games and 52% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 10, as Lecce and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.98 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Fiorentina attack 0.72 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 33% | Draw 36% | Fiorentina 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 43%, Fiorentina 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.66 PPG, Fiorentina 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.