Lazio 1-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Lazio's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 57% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 71% | Monza 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 2.10 xG and Monza 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.115 / defence 0.988 | Monza attack 0.828 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.130. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Lazio games / 13 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 64% | Draw 22% | Monza 15%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Monza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 64% | Draw 22% | Monza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Lazio 2.10 / Monza 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.115 / def 0.988 | Monza attack 0.828 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Lazio (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Monza xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Monza kick off?
Lazio vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio 1 - 0 Monza.
Where is Lazio vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Monza part of?
Lazio vs Monza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 64% chance of winning, Monza a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lazio and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lazio and Monza in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.11x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.83x) against Lazio's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.60
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.02
0.92
Monza xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
2%
55.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lazio and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Lazio and 0.92 for Monza, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 51 games, going 26W 13D 12L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.69 PPG from 51 outings (26W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Lazio against 1.69 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 13W 7D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.57 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Monza in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 26W 13D 12L in their last 51 games (1.78 PPG), while Monza have gone 26W 8D 17L in their last 51 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Monza away?
Lazio's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.84 PPG; Monza away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Lazio or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monza in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 5-1 on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lazio 5-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Monza?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 60%, Monza 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Lazio and 56% for Monza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Monza in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lazio's games and 52% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lazio's matches and 56% of Monza's.
Do Lazio and Monza tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Monza in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Monza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 2.10 xG and Monza 0.92 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lazio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 64% | Draw 22% | Monza 15%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 71%, Monza 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.78 PPG, Monza 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.